Archive for the 'Articles' Category

The Myth of the Second Season Syndrome

Published by
Terry
at August 1, 2007 in Articles and Reading. 1 Comment

The popular theory is Reading are going to be relegated this coming season. The most quoted reason is the dreaded “Second Season Syndrome”.

Even Kevin Doyle is thinking about the terrible plight of teams that get promoted, do well in their first season and then get relegated the next :-

“It seems to happen to anyone who comes up and finishes in the top half, the second season seems to be more difficult and they struggle,” the 23-year-old told BBC Sport.

However, Second Season Syndrome is a myth created by one team, Ipswich Town, doing well in their first season and being relegated the next, and promoted by the trials last season of West Ham and Wigan.

The theory goes that new teams to the Premiership will be “found out” in their second season and will be relegated.

Yet, if you look at the facts, a different picture emerges. In truth only four teams have been relegated from the Premiership after staying up in their first season. This comes from 20 sides that have survived their first season, a very healthy 80% survival rate.

Of those four, two teams stayed up by the skin of their teeth the previous season, both being one place above the relegation zone. Both Bradford and West Brom had last day survivals which only postponed their relegation by one season. Middlesbrough, promoted in 1995, finished 12th in their first season before going back down. Their relegation was secured only by a three point deduction for failing to play a game against Blackburn.

In fact, there is only one side the second season syndrome actually applies to and that is Ipswich. Of course, you could say that both West Ham and Wigan suffered it last season but survived, but in reality West Ham had rather more to worry about than it being their second season in the top flight. Again, Wigan had their own problems to contend with rather than suffer from a particular problem that is a myth.

So Reading will not suffer from 2nd Season Syndrome. They might struggle, they might be relegated. This is still a dream. But we’ll do well or badly on our own terms, not on how Ipswich Town faired in 2002.

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Is getting into Europe a good idea?

Published by
Terry
at March 20, 2007 in Articles, Reading, bolton, coppell, europe, sidwell, uefa cup and west ham. 1 Comment

It seems that most managers and fans think that qualifying for Europe is a good idea. Except Reading manager Steve Coppell.

Coppell said :-

“We’re not geared up for Europe.
“It would be too heavy a load in our development, which would not be good for us.”

Why wouldn’t a manager show the ambition to get into Europe?

For a start it is important to remember that it is Reading’s first ever season in the Premiership and they have vastly exceeded expectations. It is reasonable to believe that the Pragmatic One is looking at next season and thinking that Reading will struggle. It is reasonable to believe that Reading will not finish as high next season as this. No one knew anything about Reading this season. Next season they will.

It is important to get as good as start next season as we did this, where we amassed enough points at the start to get over a dodgy spell where we played United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool in the space of 6 weeks. Add in a few games in Europe and a little tiredness means a few more dropped points and suddenly, you are lucking at a West Ham season.

Another thing is that the UEFA Cup is not the Champions League. It doesn’t produce as much money as you think. Premiership money is more important and is guaranteed.

Finally, all the comments from Steve leads us to believe that he is trying to cement Readings place in the Premiership. He knows that if you can stay up the next two seasons, you can aim to stay a long while. Compare Bolton to West Ham.

On the other hand, getting into Europe will give Reading extra exposure to getting the better players to the club. It might make Sidwell more likely to re-sign.

I’m sure that Steve is “taking it one game at a time” and that if a European place is achieved, he will welcome the challenge. And put out a “reserve” side against Dynamo RussianFarAwayPlace.

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